Bracing for the final stretch
The
most unpredictable, dumbfounding and just plain nasty presidential
campaign in modern times is heading into its final full week.
Hillary
Clinton, who just three days ago seemed on a glide path to a date with
history, is suddenly on the defensive. The former secretary of state is
again tripped up by her ill-fated decision to use a private email server
during her time in office.
The
FBI review of new emails from longtime Clinton aide Huma Abedin found
on the computer of her estranged husband, Anthony Weiner, ensures that
an issue that has dogged the Democratic nominee from the beginning of
her campaign will be front-and-center through the end.
Democrats
are furious at FBI Director James Comey for reviving the issue.
Meanwhile, Republican nominee Donald Trump is seizing on a late and
surprising chance to unite a GOP splintered by his controversial
candidacy.
Some surveys suggest a tightening race, though CNN's Poll of Polls has Clinton ahead by five points.
The
question now is whether this hurricane of a campaign will have a final,
stunning twist -- a November surprise -- before it finally blows itself
out.
What Clinton must do
Clinton
thought she was in the clear when FBI Director James Comey stood before
the cameras in July to announce he wasn't recommending criminal charges
stemming from her use of a private email server during her tenure as
secretary of state.
who's winning?
cnn/orc
cnn poll of polls
49%
Clinton
44%
Trump
3%
Johnson
2%
Stein
But now the emails are back,
letting Trump gin up crowds already screaming "lock her up" with a
fresh spin on long ingrained perceptions that she is dishonest,
secretive and steeped in scandal.
So
Clinton's campaign is aiming to turn the spotlight back on Trump, in
line with her campaign-long effort to brand him as morally and
intellectual unfit for the presidency.
"They're
going to have to get tougher on Trump in the final week than they
planned to do," CNN political analyst David Axelrod said on "State of
the Union" Sunday. "They were coming in for a gentle landing and now I
think you're going to see them challenging Trump both in their media and
in her comments from now until the end."
On Sunday, Clinton lambasted her rival over claims he's a phony philanthropist as a preview of new character attacks to come.
Clinton
will also rely on her superior ground game and polling that suggests
she still has several routes to surpass the 270 electoral votes she
needs.
She'll travel in the coming
days to Florida and Ohio, where she's in a tight race with Trump, and
North Carolina where she is leading. By winning any one of that trio,
Clinton can block Trump's path to the presidency.
She'll also make a raid into Arizona, a traditionally red state that appears competitive a week out.
Clinton
will dispatch former President Bill Clinton, President Barack Obama and
First Lady Michelle Obama to battleground states -- leveraging her
advantage over Trump, who lacks such high profile surrogates.
But
there are nervous days ahead. She will be now live in fear of another
damaging twist to the email saga, more campaign inside gossip from the
WikiLeaks hack of John Podesta's email account. There's also a release
of more Clinton emails from the State Department scheduled for Friday.
Coping with the Comey letter
Many
Democrats believe the character issue is already baked into polls that
show she is the favorite to win the election. But her plans for a smooth
run in to Election Day are in tatters and her campaign has been forced
into a tactical shift, unleashing its full fury on the FBI chief.
"This
is something that has been tossed into the middle of the campaign. We
would have preferred that that not happen, but now that it has
happened," Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta said on "State of
the Union." "Mr. Comey really needs to come forward and explain why he
took this unprecedented step."
But
spending time attacking the FBI director is time that could be used
making a closing argument for Clinton -- or attacking Trump.
For
the moment, she is using a move many supporters see as yet another
unfair assault on her character as a rallying cry to drive up Democratic
turnout.
"There have been ups and
downs in all that we have gone through over the years and even in this
campaign, but I want you to know I am focused on one thing: you,"
Clinton told supporters in Florida on Sunday. "There's a lot of noise
and distraction but really comes down to what kind of future we want."
What Trump must do to come back
In
the hours after Comey's Friday bombshell, Trump and top aides could
barely contain their glee. A campaign that had seemed headed for certain
defeat grabbed gratefully onto the late October gift, immediately using
the revelations to bolster the Republican nominee's theme that Clinton
is a crook, broke the law with her email server and is symptomatic of a
corrupt political status quo.
He
was still laying it on thick by Sunday, reveling in the new energy the
late twist lent his campaign amid signs GOP voters are uniting.
"Her
criminal action was willful, deliberate, intentional and purposeful.
Hillary set up an illegal server for the obvious purpose of shielding
her criminal conduct from public disclosure and exposure," Trump said in
Las Vegas.
But it is one thing for
Trump to welcome a political gift. It's another thing for him to use it
effectively. His presidential bid has been plagued by his failure to
turn a trove of material detrimental to Clinton into sustained attacks.
He's
been repeatedly undermined by his own indiscipline and tendency to
detonate controversies that harm him more than his opponent.
"The
problem with the Trump campaign all along is that they've had lots of
potential material, a lot of grist for the mill that he has failed to
prosecute," said Mark McKinnon, former strategist for President George
W. Bush and Sen. John McCain on "State of the Union."
"Trump needs to just for once maintain a clear and constant focus for the next 10 days on the issues that can move the dial."
To mount a stunning comeback on November 8, Trump must also improve his position on the political map.
He
must forge ahead in Florida and Ohio, cut his deficit to Clinton in
North Carolina, capitalize on an advantage in Iowa, then find a way to
put states like New Hampshire and Nevada, that went for Obama in play.
He could carve out a decisive edge by making a big blue state like
Pennsylvania or Michigan competitive — though polls suggest that is a
long shot.
But Trump's team must
also be wondering, even as they salivate over Clinton's woes, if there
is one last big shock awaiting Trump, following October Surprise
controversies over claims he sexually assaulted women and an "Access
Hollywood" tape exposing his lewd language that left him so far behind
his rival that he starts the campaign's last week possibly too far
behind to catch up.
CNN
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